727
FXUS65 KPUB 141754
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1054 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers are expected across the plains Saturday morning,
  with dry conditions then prevailing for the rest of the
  weekend.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected everyday next week,
  with potential for high end fire weather days, especially
  Tuesday.

- Showers return to the mountains and valleys next week,
  especially across the Continental Divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1253 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today: The start of the weekend brings active weather early, though
with quiet weather returning by the end of the day. An exiting
trough and associated surface low will be in place early in the day.
With these features in place, some organized ascent will be ongoing,
primarily across the plains given influence from the surface low.
Along with that, richer moisture content will be wrapping around the
surface low and across the eastern plains. With the forcing and
moisture, rain showers are expected to be ongoing across the plains
early in the day, and given very low instability in place,
convective rain showers are possible. With that all said though, as
the trough and low are anticipated to push east during the
afternoon, with ridging quickly building in behind it. With forcing
and moisture decreasing, showers are expected to dissipate from the
northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours, with dry
conditions by early evening. Otherwise, cloudy skies early will
become mostly clear by the evening hours, with breezy winds in place
behind the storm system. Looking at temperatures, a mild, though
above seasonal, day is anticipated, with the plains in the 50s to
low 60s, the valleys in the 50s, and the mountains in the 20s to
40s.

Tonight: Saturday night brings quiet weather to south central and
southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned ridge will be in place
over the region, and given greater descent with this feature, along
with drier air, dry conditions are expected to prevail. Then to go
along with that, winds will remain light, with mostly clear skies
persisting. Temperatures overnight, while chilly, will remain above
seasonal lows for mid February, with the plains falling into the 20s
to low 30s, and the valleys and mountains into the 10s to 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Sunday: For Sunday, the quiet weather continues across south central
and southeastern Colorado. The ridging will remain in place. Given
the continued descent, and no uptick in moisture content, dry
conditions will persist. Otherwise, winds will start to become
breezy ahead of a pattern change, with pockets of clouds becoming
more prominent during the day as well. Looking at temperatures, with
increasing winds and downsloping, winds will continue the warm and
above seasonal values trends, especially across the eastern plains.

Sunday Night: Ending the weekend, quiet weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado before a busy week of weather. The
Ridging will still be in place, though will start to slide east as a
pattern change pushes into the region. Still, with the ridging in
place, dry conditions are anticipated for the area. Winds during
this period will remain light for the valleys and plains, though
will start to become increasingly breezy for the higher elevations
as flow aloft increases in response to the approaching pattern
change. Outside of all of that, another mild night with above
seasonal temperatures and partly cloudy skies is expected.

Monday - Friday: Through much of next week, active weather is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado, with critical
fire weather conditions remaining the biggest concern. Synoptically,
a prolonged period of strong westerly to southwesterly flow will
setup over the region as a jet streak stagnates over the area. This
will bring a period of increased orographic forcing along the
mountains, along with gusty winds through the week. Confidence
remains high (70-80%) in this pattern evolution given continued
strong agreement between model guidance. Looking at precipitation,
showers are expected across the mountains and valleys next week
given the persistent orographic forcing in place. The greatest
coverage of showers will remain along the Continental Divide. The
plains are expected to remain fairly dry given strong downsloping
winds. The greatest weather concern next week is still expected to
be a prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions. Gusty to
strong winds, and low humidity values, will be in place across the
plains everyday next week. Fire danger will be high during this
period, but especially Tuesday, when the best overlap of strong
winds and low humidity values will take place, potentially allowing
for extreme critical fire weather conditions to develop. Beyond all
of that, partly cloudy skies and gusty winds will be in place during
this period. Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal values are
anticipated early in the week, with a cool down by midweek, though
with temperatures still hovering slightly above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1048 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, with briefly gusty
(g20ktS) north winds this afternoon diminishing this evening.

At KALS, VFR today and into this evening, then low risk of
MVFR/brief IFR due to fog/low clouds Sun morning due to
lingering moisture in the Valley.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ226>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion