Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KPUB 041857
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1257 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry this week, with some showers over the
mountains.

- Hints at a more active pattern late this weekend and into next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A bit cooler today, with highs in the low-mid 70s across the region.
High pressure remains in place across the area as well, and will
into the near future. As such, conditions will be mild and dry for
SE Colorado. A few isolated-scattered showers will be possible this
afternoon over portions of the Continental Divide, mainly the peaks
of the eastern San Juans, and some areas around Salida. Even so, not
much is expected as far as impacts go, and any showers that do form
should dissipate by tonight. Overnight lows will be cool, with high-
40s to low-50s over the plains, and 30s-40s for the valleys.

Slightly warmer tomorrow, with highs in the low-80s over most of the
plains. Meanwhile, the area remains largely dry, with some isolated
shower chances over our southern mountains during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of this week.

Tuesday will be our warmest day, with mid-80s over the plains and
low-70s for the high valleys. Tuesday may also see some scattered
shower activity over the higher terrain, as a bit more moisture
moves in. One or two showers may also push towards I-25, though
currently the chance is somewhat low, and most precipitation will
stay over the mountains.

Through the rest of the week, temperatures will cool, with most of
the area remaining dry, with only some isolated POPs over the
mountains again. High temps will largely settle into the 60s to low-
70s over the valleys, and 70s to low-80s for the plains.

Looking at the end of the week and into this weekend, model
solutions begin to diverge, with a much more complicated pattern
setting in. A low pressure system will settle over Texas as the main
portion of the upper jet shifts north. Meanwhile, another low will
move towards the west coast amidst some more tropical activity in
the Pacific. Long-range guidance still has a pretty wide temperature
spread for this weekend, with hints at a broad trough moving in from
the Pacific Northwest by early next week. While there is still
plenty of time for this solution to change, latest trends suggest a
more amplified wave pattern, and the potential for some more active
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will generally follow diurnal flow patterns, with KCOS
and KPUB experiencing gusty winds, 20-25 knots, this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO