561
FXUS65 KPUB 211112
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over
the plains.

- Scattered storms continue FRI and SAT, drier and hotter Sunday.

- Better chance of storms over the interior mtns Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Low level moisture was surging into the southeast Colorado plains
early this morning as 50 dewpts were noted increasing over the
plains, This moisture was fueling scattered showers and storms along
the CO/KS border.

There will be a chance of strong to severe storms today. The
combination of s mid level disturbance moving across the region
along with an unstable low level atmosphere, modest deep shear of 35
to 45 knts and steep lapse rates (8 C/Km) will allow for a few
rotating storms this afternoon. Based on latest CAMS, it appears the
best chance of stronger storms will be south of US50. Another round
of storms will likely track north of US50 during the evening hours,
but these storms will are not expected to be severe. As per the
latest 06 UTC SWODY1, if a cell could be locally dominant, then
there will be a tornado threat over the plains.
 &&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Weak troughing is expected to continue over the region Friday
through Saturday, and this will allow for a continuation of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the S mtns and plains
during this period. Flow will be weaker aloft but it will be warmer
during the daytime period, so a few of the storms could be strong
both days.

Sunday and Monday it will be quite warm with 80s to L90s over the
plains. Storms will be more isolated as the flow aloft will be quite
weak.

Tuesday, a closed mid level circulation is fcst to move over the
northern intermountain region and then lift off to the northeast. This
system is forecast to push a slug of moisture over the interior
mtns, and we will have the potential to see a good chance of precip
over the interior mtns. Unfortunately, we may also see quite a bit
of CG lightning on this day, and this will have the potential to
cause new fire starts. A frier airmass will move back over the
region by mid week. /Hodanish

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Winds will
remain out of the west-southwest, gusting to 25 knots or so this
afternoon before weakening this evening.

KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR clouds are expected through the rest of
the morning with generally light winds. Breezy southeast flow will
set in at both terminals after 17Z or so, gusting 20-25 knots. Winds
gain a northerly component later this evening, with MVFR clouds and
a few gusts returning.

Both KCOS and KPUB have a very low-end chance for a shower or
thunderstorm to form nearby during the late afternoon, but coverage
is expected to be spotty and any precip is expected to remain east
of the terminals at this time. Given the low confidence, have not
included precip or outflow gusts in this round of TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion