786
FXUS65 KPUB 051157
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
557 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing moisture brings better chances for showers and
  thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

- Main concerns from storms will be gusty outflow, lightning, and
  flash flooding for burn scar areas.

- Hotter and drier conditions are expected to move in around the end
of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Forecast generally remains on track today, with weaker flow aloft as
high pressure builds in from the Four Corners. Slightly warmer
today, with highs in the 80s to mid-90s, hottest further east as
usual. At the surface, east-southeast winds over the plains will
bring in moisture to allow for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Best moisture and chances for storms will be along our
southeast mountains and over parts of the plains. Coverage will be
isolated to scattered through most of the afternoon, with storms
forming west of I-25 and pushing over the plains into the evening.
Impact-wise, mainly looking at gusty outflow winds, which could pose
serious concern for ongoing wildfire operations. Chances for wetting
rain do increase a bit further to the east where the moisture is
better. A few stronger to marginally severe storms may be possible
late afternoon into early evening, though these would likely be over
or near the Raton Mesa. Activity then quickly wanes overnight, with
mild temperatures and good RH recovery heading into the work
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Long-range models remain in good agreement on the evolution of the
pattern through most of next week. More moisture will continue
moving into our area at the mid and upper-levels, allowing for
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. PWATs
remain on the rise, finally creeping above normal values, mainly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. That being said, drier air will persist at
the low-levels, meaning that gusty outflow winds and virga will
still be a concern with any convection. That will be especially true
over and near the higher terrain, where these outflow winds could
impact burn scar areas and ongoing wildfire operations. Will need to
keep an eye out for any lightning starts as well. Any showers that
form over or near burn scar areas will also be something to watch
closely, as flash flooding could easily become a concern due to
brief but heavy rainfall over water-resistant surfaces. Temperatures
look to remain around seasonal normals through about mid-week.

Both deterministic and ensemble guidance shows hints at a rather
broad high pressure system building in from the west, later this
week and towards next weekend. This will bring the return of drier
and hotter conditions across the region, with hints at most of the
plains climbing into triple-digit temperatures. That being said,
winds look light overall, meaning that widespread critical fire
weather conditions are not currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

At KPUB and KCOS, VFR this morning into early afternoon, then
carried a prob30 for -tsra and gusty outflow winds from 21z-24z
as storms move off the higher terrain. Convection should end
after 00z, though CAMs suggest sely outflow winds from
convection over nern NM/sern CO could persist well into the
night, temporarily overriding usual drainage flows until early
Mon morning.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with light winds generally under
12 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion