000
FXUS65 KPUB 271144
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
544 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy snow likely this morning across Teller and parts of northern
El Paso county, especially later this morning.

- There is a chance for a tornado or two over the far eastern
plains, especially over Kiowa, Prowers and Bent counties.

- Critical fire danger today over Baca county.

- Heavy precip. >1.0 liquid equivalent; over Pikes Peak region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

No substantial changes made to grids other than to fine tune
pops as the system moves across the region and wrap around band
of rain/snow showers continues into the evening. Heaviest snow
still looks to fall this morning across the Pikes Peak region,
though northerly flow on the back side will keep some light to
moderate snow continuing through the evening across the central
mountains, Pikes Peak Region and Monument Hill.

Potential for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms with
hail around 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph and a brief
tornado or two still looks likely across northern portions of
the southeast plains today, with Kiowa county under the greatest
risk. This should be an early show with stronger thunderstorm
development ramping up around noon and maximizing between 2 and
4 PM across Kiowa county as the boundary lifts northward.
Overall, mainly cosmetic changes made to forecast grids with
minor changes in timing. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Currently...

An IMPRESSIVE upper level low, with a very well defined circulation,
was located over northeast AZ early this morning. quite a few
showers and some TSRA were noted over the 4 corners states, with
some pretty intense lightning activity for this time of day over
east central WY.

Over our plains, a boundary was located generally just north of the
CO/NM state line. To the north of this boundary, dwpts have crept
back to above 40F while south of this line and int the mtns, dewpts
were in th3 20s and 30s.

This morning...

an intense band of precip is expected to move over parts of the
region today, with the greatest impacts over parts of the southern
mtns, a good part of the I-25 corridor and especially the Pikes Peak
region. With the center of the upper low fcst to move over the Pikes
Peak region, and strong lift moving over the same area, heavy precip
is likely, and the cool air aloft is going to be brought down to the
surface, causing an isothermal column to develop over the above
mentioned region. With the entire column being below freezing,
heavy snow is anticipated starting prior to sunrise and lasting into
late AM or early PM, with the greatest impacts over the Pikes Peak
region and surrounding areas. Heavy snow is likely across Teller
county, western El Paso county and parts of northern EL Paso county.
especially elevations above 6500 feet. Areas from 6000 to 6500 will
also see some snow during the heaviest period of precip, while areas
below 6000 will just see moderate to heavy rain. Thunder is likely.
Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible for a couple
of hours. The snow will be wet and will settle quickly (not to
mention the ground is warm), so settling/melting is likely. Travel
will become difficult due to the heavy snow (low vis and slush
accumulating).

Over the remainder of the region snow will be likely at higher
elevations with rain over the lower valleys. The plains generally
west of a line from roughly La Junta to Trinidad will see precip
while areas west of this line will likely not see much in the way of
any accumulating widespread precip.

This afternoon...

A well define surface boundary is likely to form over parts of the
plains. Where exactly this boundary form is not certain, but it will
likely extend roughly east-west across the plains and will lift
slowly north as the surface low gets spun up and eventually pushes
east into KS late today. During the afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms are likely to form on this enhanced area of shear, and
several low topped supercells will be possible. With a favorable low
level shear pattern in place, one or two tornadoes will be
possible. SPC has a 2% tor prob extending into part of the region,
especially the greater Kiowa county region. All of the CAMS have
helicity streaks over parts of the plains today, especially Bent,
Prowers and Kiowa county. It should be noted a setup similar to this
one occurred back in April 2007 where 11 tornadoes developed over
east central Colorado. Given the relatively weak CAPE (500 or so
Joules), the tornadoes, if they develop, will likely be on the
weaker side.

Snow will likely be continuing over the higher elevations of the
Palmer Divide, but is not expected to be as heavy as this mornings
precip.

Far southeast Colorado, mainly Baca county, will see red flag
conditions today.

Tonight...

Periods of snow will continue over the higher elevations and parts
of northern El Paso county, especially during the evening hours.
Higher elevation snow will be possible over the rest of the higher
terrain. showers will be possibe over the plains. The winter
weather highlight over the higher elevations will expire by sunrise
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Sunday will unsettled with showers over the mtns, valley and I-25
corridor, with dry weather over the far eastern plains expected.
Temps on the pains will be in the 60s, with 50s valleys and 30s
through 50s mtns.

Monday will warm up and will be dry over the area. Tuesday temps
will increase further, with 80s returning to the plains, and around
70 valleys. This warm and dry pattern will continue into Wednesday.
Another stronger storm will push into the region by late week
bringing more mtn snows and showers to the lower elevations. There
could be periods of near critical fire weather conditions over the far
eastern plain Tue and Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KCOS...

Heavy precip will continue at KCOS and last into early
afternoon. During the heavier precip times, colder air will
likely be dragged down, and some of the precip could be snow.
Thunder will be possibe during the heavy precip. IFR and LIFR
conditions will be likely due to reduced vis due to the precip.
The precip should end during early afternoon, but low cigs are
anticipated to remain over the airport through early tomorrow
morning.

KPUB...

Heavy precip with MVFR cigs is expected to continue over KPUB
through late morning. Precip will likely end but low clouds are
anticipated to linger through the remainder of the taf time
period. All the precip should be rain. Some thunder is possible.

KALS...

Passing shower will be possible with periods of MVFR conditions
possible during the next 24 hours. Isolated thunder cant be ruled
out.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ058-060-081-
082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ059-061-
063-066-068-073-076.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for COZ084.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
COZ237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion