418
FXUS65 KPUB 012339
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
539 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow along the Continental Divide decreases quickly late this afternoon
  and evening.

- Windy Thursday and Friday with critical fire weather
  conditions for portions of the area, with snow for the
  central mountains

- Drier with lighter winds for the weekend into early next week
  before the weather pattern trends towards more unsettled mid
  to late week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Some much needed moisture continues to fall along the Continental
Divide with heavy snow across elevations above 10000 feet.  Have see
snow in web cams mix down to 8500 feet at times but
accumulations have stayed restricted to the higher elevations
with snow covered roads at Wolf Creek and Monarch Passes. Upper
trough passing to the north will spread increasing lift into
the southeast plains while a dry slot punches across the
southern mountains. This should tail back snow accumulations
across the eastern San Juans by late afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms blossoming to the east of the developing lee side
surface low across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. CAPE
is not all that impressive, maybe a few hundred J/kg. But deep
layer shear is running around 40 kts so a strong storm or two
can`t be ruled out this afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail
would be the primary risks. Otherwise some wrap around showers
spread into the Palmer Divide and northern portions of the
plains, but quickly departs by mid to late evening. There will
also be a period of strong winds along the lee of the southern
Sangre De Cristos as the upper trough passes and downward
forcing provides a brief window for near high wind criteria
between 21z and 03z in western Huerfano county. Probabilities of
exceeding high wind criteria in HREF are under 50% and very
localized to near the mountains, so will not issue any high wind
highlights. Otherwise, temperatures tonight will be cooler,
especially across the mountain valleys in the wake of the
departing system.

Thursday will see a quick return to critical fire weather conditions
across the southeast plains as westerly winds aloft increase ahead
of the next upper low moving through the Pacific Northwest.  Gusty
westerly winds and low humidity will spread across the southeast
plains during the afternoon. Have upgraded the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning for all areas. Humidity levels
across northern El Paso county stay too high and evening
precipitation may help moisten fuel conditions at least
temporarily, so they are not included in the Red Flag Warning.
Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer with readings popping
back up into the 70s to lower 80s across the plains, 50s and 60s
for the valleys and a mix of mid 30s to lower 50s for the
mountains. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Upper low moves through the northern U.S. Rockies Thursday night and
Friday, with an impulse rotating around the southern periphery of
the upper low across CO on Friday. With the storm track well to the
north, this system will likely bring more wind than precipitation to
southern CO.  Snow will spread into the central mountains while a
cold front drops through the southeast plains Friday morning.
Unfortunately, moisture behind the cold front is not all that great,
and post frontal humidity values may still end up below critical
thresholds.  Models vary on this, but the National Blend of Models
suggests greatest likelihood of critical fire weather conditions on
the plains may be along and south of highway 50.  The San Luis
Valley stands a good chance of seeing critical fire weather
conditions so have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for this area. Will
need to monitor Fremont and Teller county for possible additions as
well.  And depending on the low level moisture behind the front, the
southeast plains could get in on the action too.  Have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for Friday for the San Luis Valley and will let
another set of runs come in before making further expansions if
needed.  Otherwise, it will be cooler on Friday, but still near
seasonal normals east of the mountains.  Models are gradually
pulling back on the potential for some post frontal showers
across the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. Have trended
pops downward a bit further, and suspect most areas will stay
dry.

Upper ridging out west on Saturday flattens and shifts eastward
through Monday.  This will bring a return of warming temperatures
and lighter winds.  Can`t rule out some spotty elevated fire weather
conditions at times, but the risk looks low at this point.  A system
passing to the south may spread some showers across southern areas
late Sunday into Monday, but these will be spotty and light.

The weather pattern looks more active again mid to late week with
another system taking shape out west and potentially moving across
the central Rockies during the period.  Lots of uncertainty on
timing and amplitude, but overall trends would be towards increasing
winds, above normal temperatures, with a chance of showers at some
point late week as the system moves through. Too much variability to
hone in on these details so model blends seem the way to go. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KALS...

Gusty west-southwest winds are prevalent over the area due to
passing showers over and near the mountains. Gusty winds in excess
of 40 knots and periods of low visibility from haze are expected
through about 02Z. Gusty winds around 25-30 knots and MVFR cigs will
linger this evening, before winds weaken a bit overnight. Clouds
will hover just into VFR, with stronger winds returning around
midday and lasting the rest of this forecast period.

KCOS...

Passing TSRA will impact the terminal as storms move through this
evening, leaving the vicinity of the terminal by about 02Z. Winds
will still gust around 25 knots for a few hours this evening, but
VFR conditions are expected to return. Overnight, winds weaken with
mid-level cloudiness sticking around. By midday Thursday, gusty
southwest winds return, around 25-30 knots.

KPUB...

Gusty northwest winds to 30 knots or so will linger in the area this
evening, with the chance for passing showers to briefly impact the
terminal between now and 03Z. MVFR cigs and periods of brief -SHRA
will be possible alongside the gusty winds. Overnight, weaker flow
and decreasing clouds, with gusty southwest winds setting in again
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ058-
060-066-068.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ227>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion